yes that seems to describe the problem possibility quite well.The most unfortunate thing is that this unsolicited request is accepted by the firewall due to history of many "broken" DHCP servers at ISPs. Even though you're not running Merlin firmware, the code is probably the same in stock ASUS:
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asuswrt-merlin.ng/release/src/router/rc/firewall.c at 5b063cb58066ffa9099bc4c1dd2b5a7d7d303760 · RMerl/asuswrt-merlin.ng
Third party firmware for Asus routers (newer codebase) - RMerl/asuswrt-merlin.nggithub.com
C:/* enable incoming packets from broken dhcp servers, which are sending replies * from addresses other than used for query, this could lead to lower level * of security, but it does not work otherwise (conntrack does not work) :-( */ switch (wan_proto) { default: if (!(nvram_get_int(strcat_r(prefix, "dhcpenable_x", tmp)) || inet_addr_(wan_ip) == INADDR_ANY)) break; /* fall-through */ case WAN_DHCP: fprintf(fp, "-A INPUT -p udp --sport 67 --dport 68 -j %s\n", logaccept); break;