Getting back on track to OP's question...
Internet -- SPI Firewall -- NAT -- Single Client
What uPNP does, is that it can open ports - and these can be uplink only, downlink only, or bidirectional... the uplink only isn't really a problem, as the SPI firewall can block that, but it cuts both ways...
A black-hat, can, sufficiently motivated do a couple of things - most common is to DDOS the IP/Port and kick one off a network game - which going back to the xboxen/paystations, is the likely outcome - but some might take it a step further, as many devices can use uPNP to provide services...
And once that port is open, and that device is exposed, you're now dependent on the vendor there to do the right thing - and WebCAM's are a good example of how not to secure a web service on any port - it's not just about ports below 1024 these days, and they've got it automated, and the exploits are well known there.
Most blackhats are going to attack the router directly, as many have issues there...
Going back to uPNP - it's the whole issue of hole punching and trust behind the firewall - and a lot of Home gateways that do uPNP have little security - which means that while some apps might need it, it also pays to
a) firewalls on the clients - Windows/Mac have very effective implementations there, windows by default, macs by option and yes, do enable
b) practice safe-hex - don't depend on that router to close the port when it's done
Between consoles and a couple of VoIP apps, this stuff drives me nuts, and it is something that I do care about.
(let's not get started with VPN's on this thread ok? Security issues there are much worse that uPNP/NAT-PMP)